October 2010 would be next opportunity to buy low re: charts

October 2010 would be next opportunity providing all follows history; Bull Markets have three stages , first a slow upswing , second consolidated upswing when Investors desperate to find 'Parking Space' for money, (we are in beginning to middle of stage 2. Stage 3 Public and anyone else all gripped by 'don't want to miss out' like a Real Estate / Dot Com / Tulip / boom. See the charts at link below.

Third stage is a growing bubble, irrational exuberance. Mentioned in evening news programs..."Today Tonight" "Should you be buying Gold?" Koshie holding the Breakfast Show in a Gold Vault. Third stage starts when people become aware of this small corner of the worlds 30 Trillion Economy, possibly strikes during a Sovereign Debt Default or recognition US Dollar is not a Safe Haven.

Note: commentators as applied to Gold rarely use the words “Safe Haven” anymore. Plenty of people ready to buy scrap Gold, very few selling and no big talk from Media about Gold.

Silver, you would not know the stuff exists lest of all that its very cheap, the Media is owned by the Elite, Silver is a very small market. Some estimate 200 Million Ounces actually available in World Stock piles. Half a Billion $ would dry up the Market.

My thinking is when no - one is talking about something, especially Mainstream Media then its probably worth a look at. Physical Possession is only real safe way to own Metals. Stocks are very vulnerable as Silver is Mined as a By Product of Tin , Lead etc mining. Stocks are not a safe option.

Deflation is probably the only scenario where Gold & Silver could be adversely effected. Even during the Great Depression after initial drop during Deflation phase Gold gained 30% after meddling by FDR and JP Morgan.

Little known fact: JP Morgan avoided duty in Civil War by paying $300 to have another serve in his place. This was Legal, can't have the Elite's kids being blown to bits by Bullets Daddy manufactured.

Today Silver is $18.40 USD per Oz, Aust Dollar @.86, that's $22 Australian, for an ounce in a 100 Ounce Bar, a machined coin is $26 to $27 for one Ounce. Buying a 10 Oz Coin the Machine price drops to $25.50.
If buying the 1 Kg coin the cost per Oz is $24.17. It would not take much for Silver to reach an Australian Spot price of 24. Per Oz. ($19.50 US per Oz with Au Dollar at $.81 to the US $ = Aussie Spot of $24 per Oz in Bullion form not a shiny 10 Oz coin.

The price of converting Bullion into Coin is not fixed, at present its about $5 an ounce, if Silver doubled in price the 'machine costs go up as % of cost of coin. Hence Silver coin of 1 Oz at $30 + $9 to $12 in overhead,

Britain is putting a 20% GST on all Silver coins, US is preparing $600 'declaration' limit (Name & Tax Please).

Ideally Silver and Gold will continue upward at steady pace, 14% up this last year. A good Investment is one that has a low probability of loosing 50% -100% of value. Silver is never going to loose 100%; highly unlikely 50%, 10 or 20% on ups & downs always a possibility.

Long Term.... 2 to 5 years, the price should Triple. There is 1 Oz of Gold for every 15 of Silver in the ground. The price of Silver should normally reflect this ratio. Presently it takes 67 Oz Silver to Buy 1 of Gold (67:1). Ratio at (15:1) = $80 per Oz, that just reflecting the fundamental supply ratio. If reserves are as low as we think they are who knows ???
GoldSilver.com News Headlines "Race to Debase - Middle 2010"

"The Commodity Exchange Inc. said there was another 64.5 million ounces stored in COMEX warehouses in the Eligible category, which silver could presumably be coaxed into the Registered class at some silver price.

All together there were about 114 million ounces in both classes of inventory in COMEX warehouses which is about 16.4% of all the silver contracts sold as of June 22.

Historically only a small fraction of open silver contracts are actually held to maturity and delivered into. Currently it would take something on the order of 9,900 contracts standing for delivery to exhaust all the Registered silver now held by the COMEX. That is equivalent to just under $900 million worth of silver at $18.00 USD. " As of 22.40 July 8 Silver $18.06 USD : AU $.87

I bought silver at $9 an Oz, I think it was.

If only I could have negatively geared it for tax purposes to leverage that gain, eh?

__________________
The essence of this convention — though it does not, of course, work out quite so simply — lies in assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely, except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change. - John Maynard Keynes

Another good clue is Ted Butler's weekly metals wrap on Kingworldnews - he gives a excellent interpretation of the of the Commitment Of Traders (COT) report & physical inventories every Saturday.
This week he is very bullish on silver, and moderately bullish on gold.

As an aside Kingworldnews has some excellent interviews, I pop them in an mp3 player & listen when I have some spare time or in the car.

Try Financial News Hour with Jim Pulava. (I like Eric Kings Show as well)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php Silver & Gold at good price at present, thank you Manipulators, a lot of scrambling to provide Physical Gold & Silver. A flight from 'Paper Metal' is starting as big players want Allocated, Audited Vaulting of the product they thought they bought.

Read Gld & Slv fine print, no promise of delivery "Unallocated" . GATA has more credibility than ever.

Hello

I have no doubt that due to the US Fed running their printing presses 24/7 that gold, silver & other PM's will continue to go up greatly in U$ dollar terms over the coming months and years, but what about in A$ terms.

If the U$ continues to lose value, in what direction will the A$ go in relation to both the U$ and gold/silver/PM's?

Just trying to time my run to buy more PMs with my A$.

Thanks

Mark

AUD seems on an upward climb in the last two or three weeks, ideally you want AUD to go up vs USD and gold to go down.

Personally I bought some each week for a few weeks to dollar cost it out rather than figuring an ideal time.

As AUD rises I'll be looking again...

__________________
The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.

AS i see it FOR AUSTRALIANS...

To buy: you want a high AUD vs USD; and a low gold price (USD)

To sell: you want a low AUD vs USD; and a high gold price (USD)


Altogether, this maximises your returns in AUD.