House prices still rising

Released today.

Australia’s residential property market begins 2010 in the black

RP data is rubbery and pro-investor bias driven.

And this is just another spruik from the bulls.

Exactly why I left Credit Crunch in the first place.

SPRUIK SPRUIK SPRUIK!

Yes, I've heard that accusation before. I've even heard it suggested that RPData never report falling prices. But they did report falling prices in 2008. There was a famous poster on GHPC who posted the RPData map with down pointing red arrows almost on a daily basis.
If you study the indices produced by RPData/Residex/APM etc you'll see that they all agree over reasonable periods of time and all agree with the official ABS figures (which are a bit laggy as you'd expect from a government outfit).

David, the main problem with this type of reporting is that 1.8% in a month is NOISE.

Pure, unadulterated NOISE.

Stock markets go up 1.8% each hour. Does that mean the next 12 hours will mean a 20% return?

Property is such an illiquid, hard to value market that 1.8% represents the buy-sell spread on the COMMISSION ALONE on the broker....

Its ludicrous to base any knowledge on the future of property prices on the basis of ONE MONTHS RETURN!!!!

__________________
Gold may be a barbarous relic, but in barbarous monetary times, relics do well. Steve Keen
Because Australia suffers from quite acute housing shortages we shouldn't expect to see any significant falls in prices. Chris Joye June 2010
My investment company: www.empireinvesting.com.au
Find me at MacroBusiness

I guess you could have said that during every single month in 2009.

But by the end of the year, the national median house price was up 12%.

I rest my case.

SPRUIK

Exactly.

The same could be said about any market.

Then, in hindsight, you see the trend.

BTW - 12% a year. That means in six years property prices will double.

I better buy that $450,000 house here locally (I live in WA) because it will go to $900,000 in six years time, based on my one year evaluation of future trends.

Oh wait, WOW has gone up 3% in this mornings trade. That means it will be go up 6% over the day.

I better buy some, or I'll miss out.

__________________
Gold may be a barbarous relic, but in barbarous monetary times, relics do well. Steve Keen
Because Australia suffers from quite acute housing shortages we shouldn't expect to see any significant falls in prices. Chris Joye June 2010
My investment company: www.empireinvesting.com.au
Find me at MacroBusiness

So mentioning the fact that median house prices rose in 2009, is spruiking?

Should I lie and say they fell instead - would that make you feel better?

OK... lets see...

"House prices crashed in 2009. All the data is manipulated by spruikers. Prices are really down 40% but nobody knows about it yet. The truth will be revealed soon though. They can't hide the magnitide of this crash for much longer! And more falls are to come!"

Is that better? It's not true of course, but maybe it's what you want to hear?

Yep.

No thanks Shadow - too expensive for my tastes.

Nice place WA, but we are moving back to QLD at the end of 2010. The suburbs Im looking at havent had any price appreciation last year, so they look a little cheaper than normal, but I'd prefer prices to go down a bit more.

__________________
Gold may be a barbarous relic, but in barbarous monetary times, relics do well. Steve Keen
Because Australia suffers from quite acute housing shortages we shouldn't expect to see any significant falls in prices. Chris Joye June 2010
My investment company: www.empireinvesting.com.au
Find me at MacroBusiness