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Kangaroo House Prices Is Australia in a bubble or will house prices always double every seven years?

House prices soar in city's hot suburbs - Page 6

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  #51  
Old 16-03-2010
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Originally Posted by Geoff View Post
Accounts for quality? Are you sure? I have looked for data on quality changes before and have found a lack of it.

After a 2 minute search on that website I couldn't find that graph. If you could post a link to it i'd be quite interested in any data accounting for quality changes over time, and the methods used to assess quality.
I am sure, yes. The quality adjustment was carried out by Nigel Stapledon in work that was ultimately published in the paper "Housing and the Global Financial Crisis: US Versus Australia".

In order to produce the inflation and quality-adjusted chart in this post on Australian property prices I contacted Stapledon directly and he sent me the data. That was almost a year ago, but I'm sure he has been keeping the data set up to date. I would suggest you contact him directly for it.
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  #52  
Old 17-03-2010
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Ok thanks stubbornmule I will look into it.
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  #53  
Old 25-03-2010
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Originally Posted by stubbornmule View Post



While this is not quite as close to a straight line, it still shows that prices have been increasing at something like an exponential rate since the late 1950s.

That's just data, no deception! In fact, I would have thought the chart would be grist to the mill of those who think the market is a bubble, as it may be reasonable to conclude that it cannot possibly be sustainable for prices (adjusted for inflation and quality) to continue to grow at around 2% per annum. Why should they after all? I myself struggle to see it as sustainable. Still, as for predicting a bursting of the bubble, you have to answer the question, why now when the growth has been going on for so long?
Thanks for this -- a good post. In my view, any substantial fall in dwelling values, will require a catalyst, a trigger if you will. With employment improving, and recently announced gas, and iron ore projects, to drive personal wealth, government revenue, and employment for decades, I see little chance of this "trigger event", in the near term. The stars have aligned for Australia -- we may be on the cusp of a golden decade, or more!!
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Old 25-03-2010
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The stars have aligned for Australia -- we may be on the cusp of a golden decade, or more!!
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  #55  
Old 25-03-2010
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The stars have aligned for Australia -- we may be on the cusp of a golden decade, or more!!
I hope you're right. But the debt burden is extremely scary and cannot be ignored. Imagine if small percentages of deleveraging occurs?
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The essence of this convention — though it does not, of course, work out quite so simply — lies in assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely, except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change. - John Maynard Keynes
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